Every day, some new poll is published showing Democratic challenger Joe Biden with a big lead over President Donald Trump. Some Trump supporters ignore the news because some of the polls were wrong in 2016. They shouldn’t. The polls are real, and there is no doubt Trump is facing a serious challenge. But those polls don’t tell the whole story. Recently, we have seen a number of indicators to suggest not that the polls are completely wrong, but that the race might change in its final days.
Start with a jaw-dropping number from Gallup. In a survey taken Sept. 14-28, the polling organization asked voters their version of the famous Ronald Reagan question: “Would you say you and your family are better off now than you were four years ago, or are you worse off now?” A whopping 56 percent said yes, they are better off now. Remember that the poll was taken recently, after months of anxieties associated with the coronavirus pandemic, the lockdowns and the accompanying economic plunge. And a solid majority still said they are better off today than before Trump was elected.